Can the Jags beat the Patriots?

Everyone is saying they can. Last week's game against the Steelers was one of the best games I've seen all year. The Jags almost blew a huge lead but persevered to win it. David Garrard calling his own number and rushing on 4th and out, that was an unbelievable play. But Pittsburgh isn't even that good. Roethlisberger had a great year by his standards, but overall he was just good. Willie Parker had a great year but he was hurt for the game.

One thing that did surprise me was that the Jags didn't just roll over at the end of the Steelers game when Pittsburgh had surged back. The Jags don't have a whole lot of playoff experience and I kind of saw that mini-collapse coming.. but that they stood their ground at the end, I think that builds character.

Next they play the Patriots who have had an extra week to prepare, and Belicheat says betted on the Jags so they focused on them even before they beat the Steelers, so really they've had nearly 2 full weeks to prepare. They've played only average in December but with those 2 weeks I think they'll be right on track again.

Looking at the matchups, the Jags sacked Big Ben a few times, but Ben pretty much led the league in getting sacked so it's not a huge surprise. I didn't think the Jags had a particularly quick pass rush which a few teams have found to be pretty successful because Brady's got to protect that pretty face of his. Do you see any supermodels dating toothless NHL players? I think not.

Secondly although the Jags also intercepted Big Ben 3(?) times, they were either pretty bad passes, most of them were almost like lobs, or they were deflected or batted down. This rarely happens with Brady's bullet-like passes.

Finally there is the run game. With Brady 'struggling' in December --- I use this term lightly --- Laurence Maroney finally showed why he was on this team of excellent players. He showed that the Pats can also run, when they feel like it. However they'r not great at stopping the run. Their rush defense looks like one of the best, the reality is teams just didn't run on them because they were down 2-5 touchdowns. No one runs when they're down 2 TDs.

So I think the key to this game, if the Jags have a prayer, is to keep the score close or low. The Pats do not want a close game here because it enables the Jags to run and I mean, you saw it last week, you can't stop Jones-Drew and Taylor. Either your defense lines up one way and Drew burns you, or another way and Taylor runs through you.

My prediction is the Pats come out with the mindset "Crush" and jump out to an early 14-3 lead, and then from there it's cruise mode for Brady and his awesome defense.

Key matchup to look out for are the Jags cornerbacks and Patriots receivers. You can't really compare Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes to Randy Moss, I mean these two combined aren't as good as Randy. And then there's still that pesky Welker.

I will be cheering for the Jags, but really I think this game is going to be won by the Pats handily. There is far more pressure on them to win because they're the best team in the league. They also want the privilege of trying to crack last year's champions, and get their revenge on the Colts next week. Unfortunately the Pats thrive on pressure, so this one is going to be a Pats win -- 31-13.

Foot in mouth?

I had been talking to Alf about how one of the Vice Presidents of Inter-Varsity Christian fellowship had contacted me, wanting to meet with me over breakfast or dinner -- the short version of this story is that I gave them a lot of money at Urbana last year, and they were hoping to wine and dine me into doing it again this year. I declined (I had given my lump sum tithing, which I supposed was considered a 'large' contribution. But again it was more 'duty' than me supporting IVCF -- not that I don't support them but.. I think you get the idea).

Anyway, Alf had this to say about my recent blogging: "You’ve been blogging about not wanting to tithe to an institution like church. I would hesitate to give to a church that subsidizes working people who can afford to fly to Urbana." Ouch, guilty as charged -- I applied for subsidy to go to Urbana, and thus was a direct contributor to the church spending their income on people who obviously didn't need it. On a personal note I'd call that money well spent, seeing as it helped me to find my future wife. :)

On the plus side it's given me an idea about a trick I can use to divert funds towards where they *should* be going. This is what I love about Alfred though.. he always keeps me honest.

In other news, I was also sadly mistaken in regards to the Patriots-Colts game. Although there was some half-truth to what I said. The Patriots finally showed a little respect to the NFL and its fans by not "going for it" on several the opportunities they had to do so. Apparently "taking a knee" is in Bill Belicheat's vocabulary after all. I guess you can't really mess around when you're playing a real team. The Pats' joke of a schedule had given them a 8-0 start, but I can't say I wasn't impressed by their win against the Colts, even if they were depleted by injuries. The Colts and Pats will meet again in a few months, whereupon I hope the Colts can exact revenge.. also next time, the Colts should really think about dressing more than 3 WRs.

Coming up next, I review David Crowder Band's latest offering "Remedy". The results may surprise you!

Beli-cheat

Now that some of the dust has settled, I'd like to weigh in my opinion on this huge NFL scandal. Although the fines have been handed out and the Pats' success this season has proven that talented teams win (nothing new here), I believe this scandal has only reached the tip of a giant iceberg. Believe me when I say the NFL is literally reeling from this entire fiasco.

But that's a story for another day.. the jury is still out on that stuff.. about how the NFL "destroyed" all records of cheating material before even allowing us to hear about it. You can read all the conspiracy theories on the internet. To me there is only one thing that matters, because I love this game and I believe in this game. The question that most people have today is whether or not this cheating could have affected the New England's tremendous success over the past 4-5 years.

I have read all the theories about whether or not illegally taping opposing team signals can or cannot give a significant advantage to the perpetrating team. There appears to be a consensus, that, since you only play teams at most once or twice per year, taping their signals shouldn't help you all that much. And teams probably change their signals from game to game, you'd have to be stupid not to. You're standing across the field in plain sight of the other guys. Most teams have designated staff to keep an eye on their opponents' signals.

The fact is though, New England Patriots -- or "America's Team" did cheat. That much we do know. NFL rules forbid filming the opponents' sideline or recording opponents' signal calling. The question that I have for those who believe that Belichick's cheating brought them no decided advantage is this.

Why would you blatantly break the rules -- why go out of your way and risk suspensions, shame and fines, unless it gave you some kind of advantage? It's like a terrorist standing before a judge and saying "I wasn't actually planning to do anything on the plane.. I just wanted to see if I could pull it off...". Uh-huh. Let's think about this for a moment. Bill Belichick is no idiot. He knows about the above facts/arguments that I have pointed out. And he knows just as well the risks and consequences of cheating. So why then, if it brings the team no significant advantage, would you bother? Why throw away all the honor and respect you've gained over 5 seasons of *great* success if it doesn't even help you?

Why would a team with so much success over the past 5 seasons, a team that won 3 Superbowl Championships in 5 years, with stifling defense and a QB that some consider to be one of the best of all time -- why take such a huge risk of casting doubt over all the achievements and accolades this team has accomplished -- unless it didn't give you a considerable edge over your opponents?

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My answer to this question is that if Bill Belichick believed that it'd be worth the risk, then you better believe it gave them a substantial, if not *MONUMENTAL* advantage.