For those of you who are not into sports, I seriously suggest you don't read this, as I am going to go quite in-depth here.

Before we get into the Carter vs. Francis, lets address reasons some early concerns of Francis.

"Steve Francis is a ball-hog." This is the perceived notion, but not true as I will prove. Vince Carter attempts 4 more shots per game than Francis does. The Houston Rockets are scoring 88.4 ppg, and Francis is scoring just 16.6 ppg. That's just 19% of the teams' points. How is that ball-hogging? Francis also averages about 6 assists per game. The Raptor's own point guard Alvin Williams averages just 4 assists per game.

The perception that Francis is a ball-hog primarily roots from the fact that Jeff Van Gundy has publicly stated that he would prefer a pure-passing PG and build his offense around Yao Ming. I think it's unfair to judge Francis on that basis, as he's simply a better all-round player than a "pass-first" point guard.

Now, lets dig into the Francis vs. Carter -- whether or not it would even be a fair trade. Which player is better? I will now show that Steve Francis is a far superior player over Vince Carter.

Stat Comparisons
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There are 82 games per season, 48 minutes per game, 3936 minutes per season. Francis has played 82% of those minutes, while Vince has played just 65%.

When Vince is playing, Toronto averages 88.1 ppg, and yields 88.2 ppg.
When Steve is playing, Houston averages 89.8 ppg, and yields 86.0 ppg. This shows that Steve has a higher effects his team better than Vince, both offensively and defensively.

Vince is averaging 21.4 ppg, while Steve is only averaging 16.6. However, if Steve attempted as many shots as Vince did, he would be averaging 21.7 ppg.

Shot selection
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Vince Carter			Steve Francis

SHOT	ATT.	eFG%	Pts	SHOT	ATT.	eFG%	Pts

Jump	79%	.406	12.3	Jump	74%	.387	8.3

Close	16%	.515	 3.2	Close	22%	.508	3.3	

Dunk	 4%	.872	 1.3	Dunk	 4%	.818	0.9

Tips	 1%	.333	 0.1	Tips	 0%	.250	0.0

Inside	21%	.573	 4.6	Inside	26%	.548	4.2

eFG% is the effective field goal percentage, which basically factors 3-pt shots too. The attempt percentages are more important. Vince is 3 inches taller than Steve, and plays the small forward position. Yet, he takes more jump shots than Steve, shoots more from the perimeter
, and very rarely goes inside.

Foul Drawing
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Vince is horrible and drawing fouls, because he doesn't drive to the net. Vince draws fouls on 7.2% of his shot attempts, while Francis draws fouls on 12.2% of his shots.

Passing
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Francis is a better passer - he averages 7.2 assists per 48 minutes, compared to Vince's 6.3.

Rebounding
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Toronto is one of the worst rebounding teams in the league, but of their rebounding, Vince accounts for 8.8% of the teams paltry rebounding. Steve Francis accounts for 9.6%. Not bad for a short guy.

Blocking
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Blocking - Vince wins, hands down.

Turnovers
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Vince also takes better care of the ball -- but then again how often is he handling it?


So.. what was the argument again? Why wouldn't we want Steve Francis? We have a team which has problems scoring, and Steve Francis is a good scorer. He may not be as prolific a scorer as Vince (was), but he's pretty good, averaging 20 ppg over his career. Francis is a better rebounder, and we need that. And he's a better passer. Francis is also far more durable. The only time he missed any time was due to migraines, and he's over that now.

Misc Notes
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For pure positional debate, Toronto has lacked a consistent true point guard since we lost Damon Stoudamire. Alvin Williams is a good player, but he is not a natural point guard. In fact many would argue that, considering he is a natural shooting guard, would not even be an every-day starter on any other team. Toronto is just not getting the most out of what they can get from the PG position.

In the Eastern Conference, the PG position plays a huge role. You look at what a huge difference Jason Kidd, Stephon Marbury, Baron Davis makes, and how bad Orlando and Washington have become without a legitimate point guard.

Finally I want to make one last statement about Vince Carter and how he is the root to all of the Toronto Raptors' problems.

To most fans out there, Vince Carter is still a superstar. GM Glen Grunwald is building a team around Vince, and problem with that is he thinks Vince will one day start playing like he did 2 years ago. But that version of Vince Carter is dead, and as long as people don't realize this, the team is doomed.

Two years ago, people would have said trading Vince Carter for Kobe Bryant would be a fair trade. Nowadays, I don't think we could trade our entire team for Kobe Bryant. Vince Carter lead the league in All-Star votes, as a small forward. But he's really a shooting guard.

Statistically, where does Vince Carter rank among SGs and SFs?

SGs:
1. Tracy McGrady
2. Ray Allen
3. Michael Finley
4. Kobe Bryant
5. Paul Pierce
6. Allen Iverson
7. Michael Redd
8. Lebron James
9. Vince Carter

SFs:
1. Peja Stojakovic
2. Shawn Marion
3. Andrei Kirilenko
4. Donyell Marshall
5. Rashard Lewis
6. Lamar Odom
7. Vince Carter

The longer we hold on to Vince Carter, the lower he is going to fall. 2 years ago if I suggested trading Vince for Paul Pierce, I'd get a few laughs, but now, Celtic fans would be ones laughing. I say we trade him now while he's still worth something.


Here's another Yao showin' Franchise some love :)